von In Athens, an official of the Greek Air Force Central Command, had confirmed, that it had taken part in a joint training exercise with Israel off the Mediterranean island of Crete. Named Glorious Spartan 08, these exercises, were actually conducted from May 28 to June 12, 2008. It was a highly visible and coercive exercise intended to demonstrate Israel’s serious concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. In fact, on June 6, Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister, Shaul Mofaz, had warned that Iran would face attacks if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme. The Mossad Director Meir Dagan got an extension till 2010 which was being linked to Israel’s likely plans for a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Sabotage attempts have clearly slowed down the Iranian nuclear programme. However they have also served to highten Iran’s deep sense of insecurity which would impel it to move faster on its nuclear weapons programme. The US and its European allies are now going ahead with their plans to impose severe economic sanctions on Iran that target its petroleum exports and could derail its economy. Iran has threatened that in such a strangulation scenario it would close the straits of Hormuz and trigger a global economic recession. The economies worst hit would be those of China, India, Japan and South Korea. India is close to losing some US$ 40 billion of export revenues because the Reliance facility at Jamnagar has been prevented from refining Iranian crude oil due to its linkages with the American banking system. It is noteworthy that India imports of oil were some 21.2 mn tons some two years ago. These are still at 13 mt. Any closure of the Gulf of Hormuz could trigger an energy crisis as over 68 per cent of India’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf countries. The price of oil could easily cross over US$ 200 per barrel and trigger a serious economic crisis not just in Asia but all over the globe. However, our strategic partners seem least concerned about the potential damage to the Indian economy. Apparently their national security interests are supreme and they couldn’t care less about ours. We are supposed to tamely subordinate our national interests to their security concerns. So far India has gone along with the security concerns of its strategic partners but such an economic crisis would be pushing the envelope too far and there is now a need for a frank dialogue between us and our strategic partners. While our strategic partners expect us to buy their civil and military aircraft to bail out their economies, they cannot create a situation which could seriously derail the Indian economy. There are vital national stakes involved and we must articulate them to our friends who have to show some understanding. Particularly important at this juncture is the fate of Afghanistan post the US withdrawal and India would need Iran for access to Afghanistan and the Central Asian landmass. We cannot accept a situation where the crumbling state of Pakistan is appointed as the colonising power for Afghanistan. At the same time however, the Israelis have been our trusted strategic partners and our second largest source of military equipment and supplies, especially of critical high-tech equipment which the Americans are not prepared to give us directly. We also need American support to counterbalance the rising power of China. Hence the situation is achieving critical mass and requires some very clear-headed thinking and articulation of vital national interests that cannot be compromised. This is the time for hectic parleys and dialogue before the situation spins out of control.
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We cannot accept a situation where the crumbling state of Pakistan is appointed as the colonising power for Afghanistan. At the same time however, the Israelis have been our trusted strategic partners and our second largest source of military equipment and supplies, especially of critical high-tech equipment which the Americans are not prepared to give us directly. We also need American support to counterbalance the rising power of China. Hence the situation is achieving critical mass and requires some very clear-headed thinking and articulation of vital national interests that cannot be compromised
The Israelis have said that they have only 9 months to stop Iran from achieving nuclear capability. The Americans they feel have only 15 months (with their superior resources) to do so before the window of opportunity closes finally. The US intelligence sources however feel the Iranians are still some three years away from nuclear capability (courtesy the covert offensive). They are nervous over Iranian plans to retaliate in kind — with covert asymmetric options on US soil. They have asked Israel to give them at least 10 days notice in case they plan to take out the nascent Iranian capabilities through Air strikes. A dangerous situation is developing. America has totally eliminated its dependence on Saudi and Gulf oil. Europe is about to curtail its dependence on Iranian oil courtesy the oil resources of Libiya and Iraq. We import 12 per cent of our oil needs from Iran and 22 per cent from Saudi Arabia. Our energy security reliance on Saudi Arabia is growing by leaps and bounds. The close ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan make it a worrying scenario in case of any conflict triggered by terrorist strikes or otherwise in South Asia. What if a panicked Iran closes the Gulf of Hormuz in retaliation for the economic sanctions? What would be the impact on our energy security? How long would such a closure last? What would be the impact on oil and gas prices? What is the state of our Strategic petroleum reserve?
Our energy security reliance on Saudi Arabia is growing by leaps and bounds. The close ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan make it a worrying scenario in case of any conflict triggered by terrorist strikes or otherwise in South Asia. What if a panicked Iran closes the Gulf of Hormuz in retaliation for the economic sanctions? What would be the impact on our energy security? How long would such a closure last? What would be the impact on oil and gas prices? What is the state of our Strategic petroleum reserve?
This article will steer clear of value judgments on the proliferation issues involved and focus on a purely military net assessment of likely conflict scenarios that could emerge in the Gulf in case of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
This article will employ the technique of pattern modelling to discern the shape and basic contours of an Israeli air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Towards this end it will:
- Study the Israeli attack on Iraq’s Osirak reactor.
- Speculate upon the likely details of an Israeli air strike option on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Briefly examine Iranian response options .
- Examine the impact on India of such a hypothetical conflict scenario in the Gulf.
Osirak redux
In a very meticulous paper entitled “Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities”, Whitney Raas and Austin Lang (International Security Vol No 31. Spring 2007), had carried out an excellent analysis of Israel’s raid on the Iraqi Osirak Reactor of June 7, 1981.They had gone on to outline an equally credible net assessment of an Israeli directed strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. The paper is insightful and revealing and merits study in detail.
On June 7, 1981, Israel had launched one of the most ambitious preventive attacks in history. Israel’s Mossad had sought to buy time by allegedly sabotaging the reactor cores before the French companies could supply them to Iraq and assassinated some key Iraqi nuclear officials. In October 1980, Mossad reported to the Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin that Osirak Reactor would be operational by June 1981. There was intense debate in the Israeli Government before the final clearance was given.
The Israeli Air Force employed a strike package of 16 aircraft (8 x F‑15s and 8 x F‑16s). These took off from Etzion air base in the Sinai desert. Their flight profiles were low altitude across the Gulf of Aquaba, southern Jordan and then across northern Saudi Arabia to the target. The F‑16s carried 2 x MK-84, 2,000 Ib bombs each with delayed action fuzes. Though these were dumb gravity bombs, the F‑16 aircraft did have onboard targeting computer systems that could make their delivery fairly accurate. However, such accuracy was required that the planes get close to the target. The strike package arrived near the Osirak reactor completely undetected. The F‑15s then climbed up to establish a Combat Air Patrol (CAP) to intercept any Iraqi fighters that would attempt to challenge the mission.
The F‑16s formed up at predetermined points to begin their bombing runs. About four miles from the target, the F‑16s climbed to 5,000 feet to dive at Osirak and release their bomb loads. Despite some navigation problems and Iraqi air defences, at least 8 of the 16 bombs struck the containment dome of the reactor. The strike package then turned and climbed to high altitude and returned to base along much the same route it had adopted for entry. All the 16 aircraft returned safely to base. The results were spectacular. Bomb damage assessment showed that the Iraqi reactor was totally destroyed.
Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities: Target analysis
Iranian target sets
The Rass and Lang paper stated that Iran has obviously learnt the lessons of the Osirak raid. Its nuclear facilities are widely dispersed. The paper asserts that Iran is pursuing multiple pathways to nuclear weapons capability to include Uranium enrichment and Plutonium production concurrently. The Uranium enrichment pathway, it avers, is significantly more advanced than the Plutonium production route presently.
As such, the paper identifies the following Iranian target sets (the three critical Iranian nodes for the production of fissile material):
- Isfahan. Uranium conversion facility at Isfahan.
- Natanz. The large Uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
- Arak. Heavy water (HW) plant and plutonium production reactors under construction at Arak.
- Bushehr. The paper analyses the projected plans for construction of the light water reactor with Russian aid at Bushehr. However, it feels that this is not a hardened site and being on the coast, could be better struck by submarine launched cruise missiles. A detailed analysis of the three earlier target sets would now be essential.
- Fordo. The facility that the Rass and Lang paper did not factor in was the newly unveiled underground storage facility at Fordo, near the holy city of Qom where substantial amounts of low grade and middle grade Iranian fissile material is stored in a deep underground facility some 220 ft deep underground (and as such beyond the capabilities of most bunker busting bombs). It is noteworthy that Iran has five tons of low grade enriched Uranium which could be used to make some 5–6 bombs. It has also stockpiled 175 lbs of medium grade fissile material. Israel claims Iranian scientists could make a bomb within 9 months of the decision to do so and may need another 6 months to reduce its size to fit the Shabab missiles.